Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shangri-La Hotel Public Company Limited (SHANG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.01 - $20.85$17.27
Multi-Stage$36.64 - $40.37$38.47
Blended Fair Value$27.87
Current Price$53.50
Upside-47.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.97%-3.97%1.000.000.000.002.242.242.241.991.990.75
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%12.50%0.00%166.67%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.25%3.46%2.64%2.86%2.89%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.6728.5417.13
Cash Retained (M)98.3598.3598.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.67-28.54-17.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.6869.8081.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.46130.46130.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Fair Value$14.01$17.27$20.85
Upside / Downside-73.81%-67.72%-61.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.35222.90217.59212.41207.35202.40208.48
Payout Ratio56.93%63.54%70.16%76.77%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00141.64152.66163.07172.90182.16192.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Year 1 PV (M)131.92133.28134.65
Year 2 PV (M)132.41135.17137.95
Year 3 PV (M)131.73135.86140.08
Year 4 PV (M)130.07135.54141.18
Year 5 PV (M)127.63134.38141.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,126.444,344.454,571.58
Equity Value (M)4,780.205,018.685,266.84
Shares Outstanding (M)130.46130.46130.46
Fair Value$36.64$38.47$40.37
Upside / Downside-31.51%-28.09%-24.54%

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