Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $176.10 - $302.90 | $230.80 |
| Multi-Stage | $195.55 - $213.94 | $204.57 |
| Blended Fair Value | $217.69 | |
| Current Price | $280.83 | |
| Upside | -22.48% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.54% | 8.67% | 4.67 | 4.45 | 4.06 | 3.31 | 3.07 | 2.83 | 2.72 | 2.47 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.87% | 9.67% | 22.66% | 7.86% | 8.46% | 4.13% | 10.08% | 9.63% | 0.25% | 10.49% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.62% | 1.34% | 1.58% | 1.81% | 2.01% | 3.23% | 2.95% | 2.88% | 2.81% | 3.25% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 728.20 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 252.40 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 475.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 145.64 | 91.03 | 54.62 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 475.80 | 475.80 | 475.80 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -145.64 | -91.03 | -54.62 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 330.16 | 384.78 | 421.19 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 53.48 | 53.48 | 53.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.17 | 7.19 | 7.88 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.72 | 4.72 | 4.72 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.17 | 7.19 | 7.88 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.89 | 11.91 | 12.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.74% | 3.74% | 4.74% |
| Fair Value | $176.10 | $230.80 | $302.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -37.29% | -17.82% | 7.86% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 728.20 | 755.46 | 783.73 | 813.07 | 843.50 | 875.07 | 901.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 34.66% | 45.73% | 56.80% | 67.86% | 78.93% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 252.40 | 345.46 | 445.13 | 551.78 | 665.79 | 787.56 | 833.72 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.74% | 3.74% | 4.74% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 313.60 | 316.65 | 319.70 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 366.81 | 373.99 | 381.23 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 412.76 | 424.93 | 437.34 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 452.11 | 469.97 | 488.35 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 485.48 | 509.57 | 534.60 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,427.84 | 8,846.05 | 9,280.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,458.60 | 10,941.15 | 11,441.92 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 53.48 | 53.48 | 53.48 |
| Fair Value | $195.55 | $204.57 | $213.94 |
| Upside / Downside | -30.37% | -27.15% | -23.82% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATLO | Ames National Corporation | 3.84% | $0.87 | 48.60% |
| FRME | First Merchants Corporation | 3.83% | $1.44 | 35.39% |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | 3.83% | $4.27 | 83.66% |
| 0HJO.L | AvalonBay Communities, Inc. | 3.82% | $6.86 | 84.26% |
| FE | FirstEnergy Corp. | 3.82% | $1.73 | 75.49% |
| LXFR | Luxfer Holdings PLC | 3.81% | $0.52 | 98.38% |
| LCII | LCI Industries | 3.80% | $4.72 | 64.48% |
| NEN | New England Realty Associates Limited Partnership | 3.78% | $2.44 | 73.23% |
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc. | 3.78% | $4.10 | 91.97% |
| RGCO | RGC Resources, Inc. | 3.78% | $0.81 | 63.02% |
| UBSI | United Bankshares, Inc. | 3.78% | $1.45 | 48.05% |
| SLVM | Sylvamo Corporation | 3.77% | $1.80 | 41.11% |
| CAC | Camden National Corporation | 3.75% | $1.61 | 47.99% |
| ARCH | Arch Resources, Inc. | 3.74% | $5.04 | 50.87% |
| USB | U.S. Bancorp | 3.74% | $2.02 | 43.68% |
| WSR | Whitestone REIT | 3.74% | $0.52 | 60.32% |
| FDBC | Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. | 3.73% | $1.61 | 35.71% |
| WNC | Wabash National Corporation | 3.73% | $0.33 | 5.38% |
| VLY | Valley National Bancorp | 3.72% | $0.43 | 47.26% |
| GHLD | Guild Holdings Company | 3.71% | $0.74 | 36.91% |
| FNF | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | 3.69% | $2.00 | 46.79% |
| IPAR | Inter Parfums, Inc. | 3.68% | $3.15 | 61.47% |
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial, Inc. | 3.68% | $0.61 | 45.57% |
| AROW | Arrow Financial Corporation | 3.66% | $1.15 | 54.67% |
| ASIX | AdvanSix Inc. | 3.66% | $0.63 | 32.72% |
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial, Inc. | 3.66% | $0.12 | 78.81% |
| CVGW | Calavo Growers, Inc. | 3.66% | $0.80 | 71.92% |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 3.65% | $1.55 | 75.62% |
| FMAO | Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. | 3.64% | $0.89 | 37.59% |
| LNKB | LINKBANCORP, Inc. | 3.64% | $0.30 | 29.21% |
| BHRB | Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company | 3.63% | $2.24 | 31.71% |
| EOG | EOG Resources, Inc. | 3.63% | $3.90 | 38.34% |
| FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp | 3.61% | $1.72 | 47.89% |
| LNC | Lincoln National Corporation | 3.61% | $1.63 | 14.98% |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares, Inc. | 3.61% | $0.95 | 36.60% |
| OZK | Bank OZK | 3.61% | $1.70 | 26.69% |
| PCB | PCB Bancorp | 3.61% | $0.78 | 31.72% |
| SFD | SMITHFIELD FOODS INC | 3.60% | $0.80 | 36.46% |
| 0HOB.L | H&R Block, Inc. | 3.59% | $1.54 | 33.12% |
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | 3.59% | $0.92 | 87.56% |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics, Inc. | 3.59% | $1.18 | 66.47% |
| EXC | Exelon Corporation | 3.58% | $1.57 | 56.50% |
| MC | Moelis & Company | 3.58% | $2.55 | 85.89% |
| TIPT | Tiptree Inc. | 3.57% | $0.64 | 49.10% |
| BPRN | Princeton Bancorp, Inc. | 3.56% | $1.20 | 46.56% |
| EVRG | Evergy, Inc. | 3.56% | $2.60 | 71.71% |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services, Inc. | 3.55% | $1.97 | 27.82% |
| CNO-PA | CNO Financial Group, Inc. 5.125 | 3.54% | $0.67 | 22.53% |
| NBTB | NBT Bancorp Inc. | 3.54% | $1.47 | 46.30% |
| 0JQQ.L | Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 3.53% | $2.03 | 82.76% |