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Definitive Analysis

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Paz Corp S.A. (PAZ.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$532.70 - $824.16$667.86
Multi-Stage$1,194.72 - $1,316.35$1,254.33
Blended Fair Value$961.10
Current Price$569.88
Upside68.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.65%9.87%30.0042.0033.0017.0027.0031.0030.0029.0043.0022.60
YoY Growth---28.57%27.27%94.12%-37.04%-12.90%3.33%3.45%-32.56%90.24%93.15%
Dividend Yield--6.20%7.43%7.60%5.07%3.79%7.36%3.00%3.15%6.68%5.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,222.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,250.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,971.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,244.432,027.771,216.66
Cash Retained (M)11,971.6011,971.6011,971.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,244.43-2,027.77-1,216.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,727.179,943.8310,754.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)283.39283.39283.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share30.8035.0937.95
LTM Dividend per Share15.0015.0015.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share30.8035.0937.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend45.7950.0952.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$532.70$667.86$824.16
Upside / Downside-6.52%17.19%44.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,222.1316,059.9115,899.3115,740.3215,582.9215,427.0915,889.90
Payout Ratio26.20%38.96%51.72%64.48%77.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,250.546,257.218,223.3210,149.4912,036.3113,884.3814,698.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,820.085,879.475,938.85
Year 2 PV (M)7,114.487,260.427,407.84
Year 3 PV (M)8,167.488,420.078,677.81
Year 4 PV (M)9,009.189,382.579,767.45
Year 5 PV (M)9,666.4410,169.8010,693.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)298,791.12314,349.86330,550.11
Equity Value (M)338,568.79355,462.19373,035.96
Shares Outstanding (M)283.39283.39283.39
Fair Value$1,194.72$1,254.33$1,316.35
Upside / Downside109.64%120.10%130.99%

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