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Definitive Analysis

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Next Capital Public Company Limited (NCAP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.53 - $5.43$4.42
Multi-Stage$7.53 - $8.30$7.91
Blended Fair Value$6.16
Current Price$3.22
Upside91.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)523.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)493.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.7465.4639.28
Cash Retained (M)493.75493.75493.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.74-65.46-39.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)389.01428.28454.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.53$4.42$5.43
Upside / Downside9.70%37.13%68.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)523.72518.48513.29508.16503.08498.05512.99
Payout Ratio5.72%22.58%39.43%56.29%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.97117.06202.41286.04367.97448.24474.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)108.69109.80110.91
Year 2 PV (M)174.51178.08181.70
Year 3 PV (M)228.98236.06243.29
Year 4 PV (M)273.51284.85296.53
Year 5 PV (M)309.36325.47342.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,070.259,542.5610,034.34
Equity Value (M)10,165.3010,676.8211,209.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$7.53$7.91$8.30
Upside / Downside133.85%145.61%157.86%

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