Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Mulia Industrindo Tbk (MLIA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$225.87 - $345.60$281.82
Multi-Stage$480.42 - $529.10$504.28
Blended Fair Value$393.05
Current Price$290.00
Upside35.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%14.9525.920.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---42.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.09%6.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166,529.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,159.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)120,369.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33,305.8220,816.1412,489.68
Cash Retained (M)120,369.29120,369.29120,369.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-33,305.82-20,816.14-12,489.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)87,063.4799,553.15107,879.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,615.006,615.006,615.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1615.0516.31
LTM Dividend per Share6.986.986.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1615.0516.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.1422.0323.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$225.87$281.82$345.60
Upside / Downside-22.11%-2.82%19.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166,529.10164,863.81163,215.17161,583.02159,967.19158,367.51163,118.54
Payout Ratio27.72%40.18%52.63%65.09%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,159.8166,234.0585,902.20105,170.36124,044.56142,530.76150,884.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)61,426.1162,052.9062,679.70
Year 2 PV (M)73,883.5275,399.0476,929.94
Year 3 PV (M)83,889.6386,483.9789,131.26
Year 4 PV (M)91,762.3095,565.4299,485.55
Year 5 PV (M)97,783.78102,875.61108,177.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,769,229.202,913,429.383,063,575.04
Equity Value (M)3,177,974.533,335,806.323,499,978.87
Shares Outstanding (M)6,615.006,615.006,615.00
Fair Value$480.42$504.28$529.10
Upside / Downside65.66%73.89%82.45%

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