DDM Analysis: GUAR3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$34.12 - $175.14	$69.63
Multi-Stage	$19.19 - $21.00	$20.08
Blended Fair Value	$44.86
Current Price	$9.47
Upside	373.68%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.77%	108.23%	0.12	0.12	0.40	0.35	0.51	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.23	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.58%	-70.14%	16.00%	-31.98%	1,139.94%	230.22%	0.00%	-100.00%	1.61%	292,702.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.89%	1.43%	9.38%	3.02%	3.73%	0.38%	0.07%	0.00%	2.50%	3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	440.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	88.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	351.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	88.03	55.02	33.01
Cash Retained (M)	351.70	351.70	351.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-88.03	-55.02	-33.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	263.68	296.69	318.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	499.20	499.20	499.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.59	0.64
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.59	0.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.71	0.77	0.82
WACC / Discount Rate	7.56%	7.56%	7.56%
Growth Rate	5.38%	6.38%	7.38%
Fair Value	$34.12	$69.63	$175.14
Upside / Downside	260.27%	635.29%	1,749.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	440.13	468.19	498.05	529.82	563.60	599.55	617.53
Payout Ratio	20.09%	34.07%	48.05%	62.04%	76.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	88.42	159.52	239.34	328.68	428.44	539.59	571.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.56%	7.56%	7.56%
Growth Rate	5.38%	6.38%	7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)	146.92	148.32	149.71
Year 2 PV (M)	203.02	206.89	210.80
Year 3 PV (M)	256.78	264.16	271.68
Year 4 PV (M)	308.28	320.15	332.36
Year 5 PV (M)	357.59	374.88	392.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,308.97	8,710.77	9,127.97
Equity Value (M)	9,581.56	10,025.17	10,485.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	499.20	499.20	499.20
Fair Value	$19.19	$20.08	$21.00
Upside / Downside	102.68%	112.06%	121.80%

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Guararapes Confecções S.A. (GUAR3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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