DDM Analysis: ERF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$55.28 - $245.75	$96.51
Multi-Stage	$42.29 - $46.36	$44.29
Blended Fair Value	$70.40
Current Price	$19.62
Upside	258.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	10.67%	-11.80%	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.09	0.10	0.14	0.11	0.12	0.45	0.93
YoY Growth	-	-	16.84%	28.85%	62.26%	-6.73%	-27.15%	26.90%	-12.48%	-72.27%	-52.28%	16.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.16%	1.35%	1.19%	1.48%	4.81%	1.19%	0.74%	1.15%	8.72%	7.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	384.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	49.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	334.84

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	76.95	48.09	28.85
Cash Retained (M)	334.84	334.84	334.84
(-) Cash Required (M)	-76.95	-48.09	-28.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	257.89	286.75	305.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	213.40	213.40	213.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.21	1.34	1.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.21	1.34	1.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.44	1.58	1.67
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	4.31%	5.31%	6.31%
Fair Value	$55.28	$96.51	$245.75
Upside / Downside	181.76%	391.88%	1,152.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	384.73	405.17	426.70	449.38	473.26	498.41	513.36
Payout Ratio	12.97%	28.37%	43.78%	59.19%	74.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	49.89	114.96	186.81	265.97	353.02	448.57	474.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	4.31%	5.31%	6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	106.38	107.40	108.42
Year 2 PV (M)	159.98	163.06	166.17
Year 3 PV (M)	210.78	216.90	223.13
Year 4 PV (M)	258.89	268.96	279.32
Year 5 PV (M)	304.42	319.29	334.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,985.16	8,375.31	8,780.57
Equity Value (M)	9,025.60	9,450.92	9,892.36
Shares Outstanding (M)	213.40	213.40	213.40
Fair Value	$42.29	$44.29	$46.36
Upside / Downside	115.56%	125.72%	136.26%

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Enerplus Corporation (ERF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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