DDM Analysis: CRIV3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.53 - $38.49	$36.07
Multi-Stage	$6.41 - $7.01	$6.70
Blended Fair Value	$21.39
Current Price	$5.66
Upside	277.89%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	2.46%	-5.01%	0.19	0.21	0.20	0.23	0.15	0.17	0.14	0.16	0.14	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-10.40%	9.07%	-15.38%	56.51%	-12.75%	18.34%	-8.22%	9.10%	7.65%	-58.48%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.37%	4.07%	3.73%	3.61%	2.30%	2.81%	2.84%	3.93%	4.40%	4.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.97	2.48	1.49
Cash Retained (M)	0.31	0.31	0.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.97	-2.48	-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-3.67	-2.18	-1.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	102.65	102.65	102.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.17	0.18
WACC / Discount Rate	6.23%	6.23%	6.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$22.53	$36.07	$38.49
Upside / Downside	297.99%	537.35%	580.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19.87	21.16	22.54	24.00	25.56	27.22	28.04
Payout Ratio	98.46%	96.77%	95.08%	93.39%	91.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.56	20.48	21.43	22.41	23.44	24.50	25.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.23%	6.23%	6.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	19.10	19.28	19.46
Year 2 PV (M)	18.63	18.99	19.35
Year 3 PV (M)	18.18	18.70	19.23
Year 4 PV (M)	17.73	18.41	19.11
Year 5 PV (M)	17.28	18.11	18.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	567.18	594.58	623.02
Equity Value (M)	658.10	688.07	719.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	102.65	102.65	102.65
Fair Value	$6.41	$6.70	$7.01
Upside / Downside	13.27%	18.43%	23.77%

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Financeira Alfa S.A. - Crédito, Financiamento e Investimentos (CRIV3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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