Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$617.92 - $728.08$682.29
Multi-Stage$166.00 - $182.13$173.91
Blended Fair Value$428.10
Current Price$35.00
Upside1,123.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-32.19%-12.22%0.262.171.762.491.131.821.061.940.900.52
YoY Growth---87.99%23.51%-29.52%121.13%-37.99%71.25%-45.18%115.12%72.42%-45.57%
Dividend Yield--1.10%4.26%3.08%4.23%2.20%4.91%2.36%3.60%2.15%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7822.07
Cash Retained (M)273.35273.35273.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.78-22.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.50236.57251.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.9779.9779.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.682.963.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.682.963.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.943.223.40
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Fair Value$617.92$682.29$728.08
Upside / Downside1,665.48%1,849.39%1,980.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.21311.77330.39350.12371.02393.18404.97
Payout Ratio7.09%23.67%40.25%56.84%73.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.8673.80133.00198.99272.40353.86374.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate4.97%5.97%6.97%
Year 1 PV (M)69.4870.1470.80
Year 2 PV (M)117.86120.12122.39
Year 3 PV (M)166.01170.80175.68
Year 4 PV (M)213.92222.19230.70
Year 5 PV (M)261.60274.31287.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,445.6213,049.8313,677.29
Equity Value (M)13,274.4913,907.3814,564.35
Shares Outstanding (M)79.9779.9779.97
Fair Value$166.00$173.91$182.13
Upside / Downside374.28%396.90%420.37%

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