Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,329.72 - $11,282.34$6,584.13
Multi-Stage$2,898.66 - $3,171.26$3,032.47
Blended Fair Value$4,808.30
Current Price$1,410.00
Upside241.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS71.20%0.00%11.0814.587.430.480.130.750.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---24.02%96.17%1,463.55%279.94%-83.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%1.39%3.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281,396.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,766.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)277,629.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56,279.3035,174.5621,104.74
Cash Retained (M)277,629.52277,629.52277,629.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-56,279.30-35,174.56-21,104.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)221,350.22242,454.96256,524.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,502.601,502.601,502.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share147.31161.36170.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.512.512.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share147.31161.36170.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend149.82163.86173.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,329.72$6,584.13$11,282.34
Upside / Downside207.07%366.96%700.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281,396.49299,687.26319,166.93339,912.78362,007.11385,537.58397,103.70
Payout Ratio1.34%19.07%36.80%54.54%72.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,766.9757,153.16117,463.65185,373.02261,614.34346,983.82367,320.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51,870.1252,361.7852,853.44
Year 2 PV (M)96,751.4498,594.28100,454.51
Year 3 PV (M)138,572.63142,550.56146,603.89
Year 4 PV (M)177,488.19184,313.88191,334.58
Year 5 PV (M)213,645.68223,964.84234,678.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,677,202.663,854,812.934,039,220.75
Equity Value (M)4,355,530.724,556,598.274,765,146.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,502.601,502.601,502.60
Fair Value$2,898.66$3,032.47$3,171.26
Upside / Downside105.58%115.07%124.91%

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