DDM Analysis: CEGR3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$37.76 - $66.09	$49.84
Multi-Stage	$70.45 - $77.40	$73.86
Blended Fair Value	$61.85
Current Price	$96.72
Upside	-36.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.99%	1.26%	1.50	1.04	0.63	2.37	0.92	2.16	0.85	0.76	0.30	0.61
YoY Growth	-	-	43.84%	65.93%	-73.44%	158.40%	-57.50%	154.63%	11.05%	158.32%	-51.86%	-53.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.68%	1.53%	0.71%	2.96%	1.65%	3.59%	1.76%	2.54%	1.14%	2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	732.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	380.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	351.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	146.43	91.52	54.91
Cash Retained (M)	351.62	351.62	351.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-146.43	-91.52	-54.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	205.19	260.10	296.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	253.53	253.53	253.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.81	1.03	1.17
LTM Dividend per Share	1.50	1.50	1.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.81	1.03	1.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.31	2.53	2.67
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	0.19%	1.19%	2.19%
Fair Value	$37.76	$49.84	$66.09
Upside / Downside	-60.96%	-48.47%	-31.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	732.14	740.88	749.73	758.69	767.75	776.92	800.23
Payout Ratio	51.97%	59.58%	67.18%	74.79%	82.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	380.52	441.41	503.70	567.42	632.59	699.23	740.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	0.19%	1.19%	2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	411.05	415.15	419.25
Year 2 PV (M)	436.79	445.55	454.40
Year 3 PV (M)	458.20	472.06	486.19
Year 4 PV (M)	475.69	494.97	514.83
Year 5 PV (M)	489.64	514.57	540.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,588.92	16,382.53	17,208.15
Equity Value (M)	17,860.29	18,724.83	19,623.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	253.53	253.53	253.53
Fair Value	$70.45	$73.86	$77.40
Upside / Downside	-27.17%	-23.64%	-19.98%

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Companhia Distribuidora de Gás do Rio de Janeiro - CEG (CEGR3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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