DDM Analysis: BIR-PA.TO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.94 - $4.76	$3.76
Multi-Stage	$4.07 - $4.45	$4.26
Blended Fair Value	$4.01
Current Price	$7.47
Upside	-46.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.03%	0.00%	0.40	0.78	0.26	0.02	0.04	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.46%	197.19%	981.31%	-39.47%	-60.72%	5.03%	0.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.92%	14.67%	3.44%	0.29%	1.54%	13.12%	2.66%	2.63%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	72.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	51.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21.27

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.58	9.12	5.47
Cash Retained (M)	21.27	21.27	21.27
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.58	-9.12	-5.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.69	12.16	15.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	272.76	272.76	272.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.25
WACC / Discount Rate	8.64%	8.64%	8.64%
Growth Rate	1.27%	2.27%	3.27%
Fair Value	$2.94	$3.76	$4.76
Upside / Downside	-60.65%	-49.71%	-36.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	72.92	74.58	76.27	78.00	79.76	81.57	84.02
Payout Ratio	70.83%	74.66%	78.50%	82.33%	86.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	51.65	55.68	59.87	64.21	68.73	73.42	77.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.64%	8.64%	8.64%
Growth Rate	1.27%	2.27%	3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	50.75	51.25	51.75
Year 2 PV (M)	49.74	50.73	51.72
Year 3 PV (M)	48.63	50.09	51.57
Year 4 PV (M)	47.44	49.35	51.31
Year 5 PV (M)	46.19	48.52	50.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	867.78	911.48	956.92
Equity Value (M)	1,110.54	1,161.41	1,214.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	272.76	272.76	272.76
Fair Value	$4.07	$4.26	$4.45
Upside / Downside	-45.50%	-43.00%	-40.41%

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Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-PA.TO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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