DDM Analysis: BEM-R.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.79 - $4.52	$3.57
Multi-Stage	$5.85 - $6.43	$6.13
Blended Fair Value	$4.85
Current Price	$5.15
Upside	-5.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.40%	5.02%	0.14	0.12	0.08	0.10	0.09	0.16	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	16.51%	50.00%	-20.00%	11.11%	-40.00%	15.38%	8.33%	0.00%	-4.72%	47.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.68%	1.51%	0.94%	1.19%	1.06%	2.00%	1.33%	1.74%	1.63%	2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,794.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,246.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,547.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	758.85	474.28	284.57
Cash Retained (M)	1,547.56	1,547.56	1,547.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-758.85	-474.28	-284.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	788.71	1,073.28	1,262.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	14,775.42	14,775.42	14,775.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.22	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-0.91%	0.09%	1.09%
Fair Value	$2.79	$3.57	$4.52
Upside / Downside	-45.91%	-30.77%	-12.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,794.24	3,797.63	3,801.02	3,804.41	3,807.81	3,811.21	3,925.54
Payout Ratio	59.21%	65.37%	71.53%	77.69%	83.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,246.68	2,482.52	2,718.78	2,955.46	3,192.56	3,430.09	3,631.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-0.91%	0.09%	1.09%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,309.95	2,333.26	2,356.58
Year 2 PV (M)	2,353.93	2,401.68	2,449.91
Year 3 PV (M)	2,380.97	2,453.79	2,528.07
Year 4 PV (M)	2,393.20	2,491.28	2,592.34
Year 5 PV (M)	2,392.51	2,515.69	2,643.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	74,557.47	78,396.31	82,391.67
Equity Value (M)	86,388.03	90,592.01	94,962.48
Shares Outstanding (M)	14,775.42	14,775.42	14,775.42
Fair Value	$5.85	$6.13	$6.43
Upside / Downside	13.53%	19.05%	24.80%

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Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (BEM-R.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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