Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$374.00 - $907.42$850.39
Multi-Stage$134.25 - $146.84$140.43
Blended Fair Value$495.41
Current Price$83.31
Upside494.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS55.31%30.53%0.490.220.410.490.100.050.050.080.030.01
YoY Growth--128.04%-47.29%-15.42%410.64%74.07%12.50%-38.46%160.00%200.00%-70.59%
Dividend Yield--2.14%1.19%2.12%2.32%0.42%0.24%0.39%0.75%0.29%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,266.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)985.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)450.20281.38168.83
Cash Retained (M)985.00985.00985.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-450.20-281.38-168.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)534.80703.63816.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)493.34493.34493.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.431.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.572.572.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.431.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.653.994.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$374.00$850.39$907.42
Upside / Downside348.92%920.75%989.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,251.002,397.322,553.142,719.092,895.843,084.073,176.59
Payout Ratio56.24%62.99%69.75%76.50%83.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,266.001,510.151,780.692,080.022,410.742,775.662,938.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,404.271,417.581,430.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,539.761,569.091,598.69
Year 3 PV (M)1,672.491,720.501,769.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,802.511,871.831,943.13
Year 5 PV (M)1,929.872,023.082,119.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,879.8060,675.4163,578.03
Equity Value (M)66,228.7069,277.5072,440.02
Shares Outstanding (M)493.34493.34493.34
Fair Value$134.25$140.43$146.84
Upside / Downside61.14%68.56%76.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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