DDM Analysis: ANTO.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.09 - $27.34	$21.74
Multi-Stage	$25.08 - $27.51	$26.27
Blended Fair Value	$24.01
Current Price	$24.85
Upside	-3.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.56%	-10.52%	0.32	0.62	1.28	0.72	0.13	0.48	0.47	0.26	0.03	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-48.24%	-51.45%	77.67%	441.77%	-72.10%	0.73%	85.06%	724.51%	-75.94%	-86.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.62%	2.96%	6.86%	3.98%	0.68%	3.93%	4.75%	1.89%	0.37%	1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,594.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	548.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,046.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	318.98	199.36	119.62
Cash Retained (M)	1,046.20	1,046.20	1,046.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-318.98	-199.36	-119.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	727.22	846.84	926.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	985.86	985.86	985.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.86	0.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.56	0.56	0.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.86	0.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.29	1.42	1.50
WACC / Discount Rate	8.15%	8.15%	8.15%
Growth Rate	0.54%	1.54%	2.54%
Fair Value	$17.09	$21.74	$27.34
Upside / Downside	-31.22%	-12.53%	10.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,594.90	1,619.48	1,644.44	1,669.79	1,695.53	1,721.66	1,773.31
Payout Ratio	34.40%	45.52%	56.64%	67.76%	78.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	548.70	737.23	931.45	1,131.47	1,337.44	1,549.49	1,640.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.15%	8.15%	8.15%
Growth Rate	0.54%	1.54%	2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)	674.94	681.65	688.36
Year 2 PV (M)	780.69	796.29	812.05
Year 3 PV (M)	868.20	894.37	921.05
Year 4 PV (M)	939.53	977.47	1,016.55
Year 5 PV (M)	996.52	1,047.07	1,099.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	20,467.96	21,506.30	22,586.35
Equity Value (M)	24,727.83	25,903.15	27,124.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	985.86	985.86	985.86
Fair Value	$25.08	$26.27	$27.51
Upside / Downside	0.94%	5.73%	10.72%

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Antofagasta plc (ANTO.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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