Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$136.21 - $194.60$164.85
Multi-Stage$211.97 - $232.82$222.19
Blended Fair Value$193.52
Current Price$620.00
Upside-68.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315,713.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71,216.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)244,497.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63,142.6839,464.1723,678.50
Cash Retained (M)244,497.28244,497.28244,497.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-63,142.68-39,464.17-23,678.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)181,354.61205,033.11220,818.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,825.8015,825.8015,825.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.4612.9613.95
LTM Dividend per Share4.504.504.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.4612.9613.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.9617.4618.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$136.21$164.85$194.60
Upside / Downside-78.03%-73.41%-68.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315,713.38312,556.25309,430.69306,336.38303,273.02300,240.29309,247.50
Payout Ratio22.56%36.05%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71,216.10112,663.28153,274.39193,062.01232,038.55270,216.26286,053.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)101,865.66102,905.10103,944.55
Year 2 PV (M)125,302.70127,872.94130,469.28
Year 3 PV (M)142,702.99147,116.18151,619.43
Year 4 PV (M)155,075.01161,502.15168,127.02
Year 5 PV (M)163,282.10171,784.58180,637.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,666,365.752,805,209.602,949,778.08
Equity Value (M)3,354,594.213,516,390.553,684,575.97
Shares Outstanding (M)15,825.8015,825.8015,825.80
Fair Value$211.97$222.19$232.82
Upside / Downside-65.81%-64.16%-62.45%

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