Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The a2 Milk Company Limited (A2M.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.71 - $5.53$4.57
Multi-Stage$6.90 - $7.60$7.24
Blended Fair Value$5.91
Current Price$8.64
Upside-31.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.080.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)269.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.2141.3824.83
Cash Retained (M)269.53269.53269.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.21-41.38-24.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)203.31228.14244.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)727.86727.86727.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.71$4.57$5.53
Upside / Downside-57.06%-47.05%-36.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.07327.76324.48321.23318.02314.84324.29
Payout Ratio18.59%32.87%47.15%61.44%75.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.54107.74153.00197.35240.80283.36299.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)99.10100.12101.13
Year 2 PV (M)129.47132.12134.80
Year 3 PV (M)153.61158.36163.21
Year 4 PV (M)172.41179.56186.92
Year 5 PV (M)186.63196.35206.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,283.374,506.414,738.65
Equity Value (M)5,024.595,272.925,531.18
Shares Outstanding (M)727.86727.86727.86
Fair Value$6.90$7.24$7.60
Upside / Downside-20.10%-16.15%-12.05%

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