DDM Analysis: 9992.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$162.00 - $497.39	$258.53
Multi-Stage	$105.88 - $115.76	$110.73
Blended Fair Value	$184.63
Current Price	$243.19
Upside	-24.08%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	36.95%	0.00%	0.29	0.09	0.17	0.15	0.27	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	216.33%	-45.85%	9.42%	-42.47%	346.77%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.34%	0.51%	0.96%	0.42%	0.39%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,305.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,445.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,859.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,661.12	1,038.20	622.92
Cash Retained (M)	6,859.76	6,859.76	6,859.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,661.12	-1,038.20	-622.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,198.64	5,821.56	6,236.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,333.37	1,333.37	1,333.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.90	4.37	4.68
LTM Dividend per Share	1.08	1.08	1.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.90	4.37	4.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.98	5.45	5.76
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$162.00	$258.53	$497.39
Upside / Downside	-33.39%	6.31%	104.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,305.61	8,845.47	9,420.43	10,032.76	10,684.89	11,379.41	11,720.79
Payout Ratio	17.41%	31.93%	46.44%	60.96%	75.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,445.85	2,824.05	4,375.31	6,116.30	8,065.13	10,241.46	10,841.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,572.56	2,596.94	2,621.33
Year 2 PV (M)	3,630.72	3,699.88	3,769.69
Year 3 PV (M)	4,623.44	4,756.17	4,891.40
Year 4 PV (M)	5,553.68	5,767.26	5,986.94
Year 5 PV (M)	6,424.27	6,734.57	7,056.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	118,371.60	124,088.99	130,025.20
Equity Value (M)	141,176.27	147,643.80	154,351.29
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,333.37	1,333.37	1,333.37
Fair Value	$105.88	$110.73	$115.76
Upside / Downside	-56.46%	-54.47%	-52.40%

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Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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