Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hotel Newgrand Co.,Ltd. (9720.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,067.33 - $15,438.72$9,159.85
Multi-Stage$23,271.05 - $25,686.47$24,454.82
Blended Fair Value$16,807.33
Current Price$7,160.00
Upside134.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS325.04%0.00%24.670.000.000.000.000.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)306.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2042.0025.20
Cash Retained (M)306.94306.94306.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.20-42.00-25.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)239.74264.94281.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.181.181.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share203.05224.40238.63
LTM Dividend per Share24.6224.6224.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share203.05224.40238.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend227.67249.02263.25
WACC / Discount Rate3.08%3.08%3.08%
Growth Rate-0.65%0.35%1.35%
Fair Value$6,067.33$9,159.85$15,438.72
Upside / Downside-15.26%27.93%115.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.01337.20338.39339.59340.79341.99352.25
Payout Ratio8.65%24.92%41.19%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0784.03139.39195.13251.26307.79325.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.08%3.08%3.08%
Growth Rate-0.65%0.35%1.35%
Year 1 PV (M)80.7181.5282.33
Year 2 PV (M)128.57131.18133.80
Year 3 PV (M)172.87178.14183.52
Year 4 PV (M)213.80222.54231.54
Year 5 PV (M)251.54264.45277.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,627.8227,995.1229,418.02
Equity Value (M)27,475.3128,872.9530,327.11
Shares Outstanding (M)1.181.181.18
Fair Value$23,271.05$24,454.82$25,686.47
Upside / Downside225.01%241.55%258.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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