DDM Analysis: 9633.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.10 - $32.44	$26.38
Multi-Stage	$47.23 - $51.94	$49.54
Blended Fair Value	$37.96
Current Price	$36.58
Upside	3.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	-2.55%	0.00%	0.75	0.68	0.45	0.17	0.71	0.85	0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	10.31%	51.14%	164.61%	-76.04%	-16.86%	1,976.50%	25.87%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.35%	1.70%	1.16%	0.41%	1.54%	2.89%	0.14%	0.12%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	26,049.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16,081.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9,968.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,209.89	3,256.18	1,953.71
Cash Retained (M)	9,968.30	9,968.30	9,968.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,209.89	-3,256.18	-1,953.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,758.41	6,712.12	8,014.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,246.47	11,246.47	11,246.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.60	0.71
LTM Dividend per Share	1.43	1.43	1.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.60	0.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.85	2.03	2.14
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$21.10	$26.38	$32.44
Upside / Downside	-42.31%	-27.88%	-11.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	26,049.46	25,788.97	25,531.08	25,275.77	25,023.01	24,772.78	25,515.96
Payout Ratio	61.73%	67.39%	73.04%	78.69%	84.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16,081.16	17,378.30	18,647.88	19,890.33	21,106.07	22,295.50	23,602.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	16,136.89	16,301.56	16,466.22
Year 2 PV (M)	16,078.85	16,408.66	16,741.82
Year 3 PV (M)	15,925.03	16,417.52	16,920.06
Year 4 PV (M)	15,691.28	16,341.61	17,011.95
Year 5 PV (M)	15,391.50	16,192.97	17,027.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	451,955.85	475,490.24	499,994.97
Equity Value (M)	531,179.40	557,152.56	584,162.51
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,246.47	11,246.47	11,246.47
Fair Value	$47.23	$49.54	$51.94
Upside / Downside	29.12%	35.43%	42.00%

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Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (9633.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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