Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Asahi Broadcasting Group Holdings Corporation (9405.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,011.52 - $1,465.22$1,231.88
Multi-Stage$1,449.93 - $1,594.09$1,520.62
Blended Fair Value$1,376.25
Current Price$777.00
Upside77.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.62%-2.61%12.0012.0026.9911.7813.7226.4419.5726.3917.6020.53
YoY Growth--0.00%-55.55%129.07%-14.14%-48.10%35.13%-25.86%49.93%-14.24%31.24%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.78%4.08%1.80%1.95%3.43%2.72%3.17%2.16%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,631.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,151.20719.50431.70
Cash Retained (M)5,631.005,631.005,631.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,151.20-719.50-431.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,479.804,911.505,199.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.7541.7541.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share107.30117.64124.53
LTM Dividend per Share2.992.992.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share107.30117.64124.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend110.29120.63127.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate-1.19%-0.19%0.81%
Fair Value$1,011.52$1,231.88$1,465.22
Upside / Downside30.18%58.54%88.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,756.005,745.335,734.695,724.065,713.455,702.875,873.95
Payout Ratio2.17%19.74%37.30%54.87%72.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.001,133.972,139.213,140.724,138.505,132.585,433.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate-1.19%-0.19%0.81%
Year 1 PV (M)1,024.381,034.751,045.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,745.711,781.221,817.09
Year 3 PV (M)2,315.302,386.302,458.75
Year 4 PV (M)2,756.012,869.282,986.00
Year 5 PV (M)3,087.683,247.113,413.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,606.4852,167.8854,834.01
Equity Value (M)60,535.5763,486.5566,554.03
Shares Outstanding (M)41.7541.7541.75
Fair Value$1,449.93$1,520.62$1,594.09
Upside / Downside86.61%95.70%105.16%

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