Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Berhad (8869.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.73 - $43.27$40.55
Multi-Stage$22.62 - $24.82$23.70
Blended Fair Value$32.13
Current Price$5.18
Upside520.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.20%19.50%0.070.070.060.040.020.030.030.030.020.01
YoY Growth--0.00%17.05%57.45%138.46%-37.99%-16.67%12.78%67.17%15.42%20.12%
Dividend Yield--1.39%1.49%1.23%0.61%0.32%1.56%1.37%1.27%1.23%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,792.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)597.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,195.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)358.58224.11134.47
Cash Retained (M)1,195.551,195.551,195.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-358.58-224.11-134.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)836.96971.431,061.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,239.628,239.628,239.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate4.02%4.02%4.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.73$40.55$43.27
Upside / Downside609.08%682.91%735.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,792.921,909.462,033.572,165.762,306.532,456.452,530.15
Payout Ratio33.32%44.65%55.99%67.33%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)597.37852.661,138.621,458.151,814.402,210.812,340.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.02%4.02%4.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)812.03819.72827.42
Year 2 PV (M)1,032.681,052.351,072.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,259.451,295.601,332.44
Year 4 PV (M)1,492.471,549.861,608.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,731.871,815.521,902.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)180,038.09188,734.00197,762.72
Equity Value (M)186,366.58195,267.06204,506.06
Shares Outstanding (M)8,239.628,239.628,239.62
Fair Value$22.62$23.70$24.82
Upside / Downside336.65%357.50%379.15%

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