Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. (7181.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,877.60 - $2,539.04$2,215.99
Multi-Stage$5,447.17 - $6,039.06$5,736.86
Blended Fair Value$3,976.43
Current Price$4,193.00
Upside-5.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.08%8.48%100.5694.4395.14160.8456.69171.06108.1395.3988.9865.02
YoY Growth--6.49%-0.75%-40.85%183.72%-66.86%58.20%13.36%7.21%36.85%45.92%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.00%4.39%7.41%2.76%12.11%5.41%4.19%3.59%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154,447.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,933.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)116,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,889.4019,305.8811,583.53
Cash Retained (M)116,514.00116,514.00116,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,889.40-19,305.88-11,583.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)85,624.6097,208.13104,930.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
LTM Dividend per Share100.56100.56100.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend327.55358.26378.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Fair Value$1,877.60$2,215.99$2,539.04
Upside / Downside-55.22%-47.15%-39.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154,447.00141,907.64130,386.34119,800.44110,073.99101,137.23104,171.34
Payout Ratio24.56%37.65%50.74%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,933.0053,425.9966,153.2376,461.6984,660.2391,023.5096,358.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)49,509.8250,054.6050,599.37
Year 2 PV (M)56,810.5058,067.6059,338.45
Year 3 PV (M)60,849.9562,880.8064,956.34
Year 4 PV (M)62,435.9365,229.6568,116.09
Year 5 PV (M)62,208.1865,706.8469,361.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,762,964.701,862,115.711,965,678.46
Equity Value (M)2,054,779.092,164,055.192,278,049.88
Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
Fair Value$5,447.17$5,736.86$6,039.06
Upside / Downside29.91%36.82%44.03%

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