Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.,Ltd (688800.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$301.36 - $355.05$332.74
Multi-Stage$200.76 - $220.33$210.36
Blended Fair Value$271.55
Current Price$75.12
Upside261.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.70%59.60%0.180.380.210.010.110.070.020.080.010.00
YoY Growth---51.34%75.86%1,660.34%-88.73%63.79%273.34%-79.08%1,461.60%73.39%82.42%
Dividend Yield--0.48%1.58%0.46%0.02%0.21%0.13%0.03%0.16%0.01%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)302.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.4637.7922.67
Cash Retained (M)220.66220.66220.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.46-37.79-22.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.20182.88197.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.33169.33169.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.081.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.081.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate2.72%2.72%2.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$301.36$332.74$355.05
Upside / Downside301.17%342.94%372.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)302.30321.95342.88365.17388.90414.18426.61
Payout Ratio27.01%39.61%52.20%64.80%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.64127.51179.00236.64301.02372.77394.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.72%2.72%2.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)122.97124.14125.30
Year 2 PV (M)166.48169.65172.85
Year 3 PV (M)212.26218.35224.56
Year 4 PV (M)260.40270.41280.71
Year 5 PV (M)310.99326.01341.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,921.2634,511.3636,162.33
Equity Value (M)33,994.3535,619.9337,307.36
Shares Outstanding (M)169.33169.33169.33
Fair Value$200.76$210.36$220.33
Upside / Downside167.25%180.03%193.30%

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