DDM Analysis: 688616.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$39.23 - $106.96	$100.24
Multi-Stage	$15.25 - $16.68	$15.95
Blended Fair Value	$58.09
Current Price	$13.02
Upside	346.18%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.05%	17.24%	0.25	0.18	0.20	0.19	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.11	0.50	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	39.90%	-8.70%	2.76%	195.49%	-0.33%	26.66%	-54.24%	-77.75%	635.67%	33.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.27%	1.96%	1.85%	1.98%	0.52%	0.42%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	95.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	52.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	42.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.03	11.89	7.13
Cash Retained (M)	42.24	42.24	42.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.03	-11.89	-7.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23.22	30.35	35.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	176.87	176.87	176.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.17	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.17	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.43	0.47	0.50
WACC / Discount Rate	6.66%	6.66%	6.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$39.23	$100.24	$106.96
Upside / Downside	201.34%	669.86%	721.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	95.13	101.31	107.89	114.91	122.38	130.33	134.24
Payout Ratio	55.59%	62.47%	69.35%	76.24%	83.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	52.88	63.29	74.83	87.60	101.72	117.30	124.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.66%	6.66%	6.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	58.78	59.34	59.90
Year 2 PV (M)	64.55	65.78	67.02
Year 3 PV (M)	70.19	72.20	74.25
Year 4 PV (M)	75.69	78.60	81.60
Year 5 PV (M)	81.07	84.98	89.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,346.80	2,460.15	2,577.84
Equity Value (M)	2,697.08	2,821.06	2,949.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	176.87	176.87	176.87
Fair Value	$15.25	$15.95	$16.68
Upside / Downside	17.12%	22.50%	28.09%

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Hangzhou Xili Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd (688616.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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