DDM Analysis: 688569.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.25 - $17.84	$13.50
Multi-Stage	$18.82 - $20.68	$19.73
Blended Fair Value	$16.62
Current Price	$21.20
Upside	-21.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	5.93%	0.00%	0.45	0.35	0.25	0.12	0.11	0.33	0.01	0.11	0.22	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	28.57%	37.56%	108.32%	9.45%	-66.92%	3,412.65%	-91.59%	-47.48%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.04%	1.41%	1.03%	0.72%	0.61%	0.97%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	168.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	73.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	94.78

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.70	21.06	12.64
Cash Retained (M)	94.78	94.78	94.78
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.70	-21.06	-12.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	61.08	73.71	82.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	212.32	212.32	212.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.35	0.39
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.35	0.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.63	0.69	0.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	0.19%	1.19%	2.19%
Fair Value	$10.25	$13.50	$17.84
Upside / Downside	-51.64%	-36.31%	-15.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	168.51	170.52	172.56	174.62	176.70	178.81	184.17
Payout Ratio	43.76%	53.00%	62.25%	71.50%	80.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	73.73	90.38	107.42	124.85	142.69	160.93	170.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	0.19%	1.19%	2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	84.11	84.95	85.79
Year 2 PV (M)	93.03	94.89	96.78
Year 3 PV (M)	100.62	103.66	106.76
Year 4 PV (M)	107.00	111.34	115.81
Year 5 PV (M)	112.31	118.02	123.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,499.16	3,677.30	3,862.63
Equity Value (M)	3,996.22	4,190.17	4,391.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	212.32	212.32	212.32
Fair Value	$18.82	$19.73	$20.68
Upside / Downside	-11.22%	-6.91%	-2.43%

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Beijing Tieke Shougang Rail Way-Tech Co., Ltd. (688569.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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