DDM Analysis: 688318.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.43 - $88.82	$56.21
Multi-Stage	$27.75 - $30.29	$28.99
Blended Fair Value	$42.60
Current Price	$161.48
Upside	-73.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.56%	28.97%	0.69	0.25	0.50	0.36	0.22	0.27	0.27	0.00	0.13	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	170.36%	-49.54%	40.00%	66.67%	-20.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	150.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.47%	0.32%	0.69%	0.77%	0.40%	0.37%	0.37%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	344.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	112.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)	232.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	68.83	43.02	25.81
Cash Retained (M)	232.09	232.09	232.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-68.83	-43.02	-25.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	163.26	189.07	206.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	185.22	185.22	185.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	1.02	1.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.60	0.60	0.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	1.02	1.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.49	1.63	1.72
WACC / Discount Rate	9.58%	9.58%	9.58%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$38.43	$56.21	$88.82
Upside / Downside	-76.20%	-65.19%	-45.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	344.14	366.51	390.33	415.70	442.73	471.50	485.65
Payout Ratio	32.56%	44.05%	55.54%	67.02%	78.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	112.05	161.44	216.77	278.62	347.59	424.35	449.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.58%	9.58%	9.58%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	145.94	147.32	148.71
Year 2 PV (M)	177.15	180.53	183.93
Year 3 PV (M)	205.84	211.75	217.77
Year 4 PV (M)	232.14	241.07	250.25
Year 5 PV (M)	256.20	268.58	281.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,121.71	4,320.79	4,527.49
Equity Value (M)	5,138.98	5,370.03	5,609.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	185.22	185.22	185.22
Fair Value	$27.75	$28.99	$30.29
Upside / Downside	-82.82%	-82.05%	-81.24%

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Shenzhen Fortune Trend technology Co., Ltd. (688318.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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