Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sansure Biotech Inc. (688289.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.84 - $5.80$4.76
Multi-Stage$7.99 - $8.78$8.38
Blended Fair Value$6.57
Current Price$21.17
Upside-68.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.440.661.080.720.490.000.000.010.000.00
YoY Growth---32.98%-39.04%49.34%46.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%3.40%4.55%2.39%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)179.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3033.9420.36
Cash Retained (M)91.9891.9891.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.30-33.94-20.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.6858.0471.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)609.07609.07609.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.84$4.76$5.80
Upside / Downside-81.88%-77.51%-72.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.49268.78266.09263.43260.79258.18265.93
Payout Ratio66.12%70.90%75.67%80.45%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)179.51190.55201.35211.92222.26232.37245.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)176.10177.90179.70
Year 2 PV (M)171.98175.51179.07
Year 3 PV (M)167.28172.45177.73
Year 4 PV (M)162.14168.86175.78
Year 5 PV (M)156.66164.81173.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,033.734,243.774,462.48
Equity Value (M)4,867.885,103.305,348.07
Shares Outstanding (M)609.07609.07609.07
Fair Value$7.99$8.38$8.78
Upside / Downside-62.25%-60.42%-58.52%

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