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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Signal Co., Ltd. (6741.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,538.69 - $5,635.13$3,662.55
Multi-Stage$3,417.00 - $3,750.96$3,580.81
Blended Fair Value$3,621.68
Current Price$1,217.00
Upside197.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.48%6.26%33.9426.9526.9426.9425.9425.9925.1124.3224.0222.94
YoY Growth--25.94%0.06%0.00%3.83%-0.19%3.51%3.23%1.27%4.68%24.11%
Dividend Yield--3.15%2.59%2.51%2.74%2.83%2.29%1.99%2.26%2.32%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,266.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,681.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,585.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,653.201,033.25619.95
Cash Retained (M)5,585.005,585.005,585.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,653.20-1,033.25-619.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,931.804,551.754,965.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.3762.3762.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.0472.9879.60
LTM Dividend per Share42.9842.9842.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.0472.9879.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend106.02115.96122.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.13%3.13%4.13%
Fair Value$2,538.69$3,662.55$5,635.13
Upside / Downside108.60%200.95%363.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,266.008,524.878,791.849,067.179,351.139,643.979,933.29
Payout Ratio32.43%43.95%55.46%66.97%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,681.003,746.444,875.996,072.617,339.408,679.589,188.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.13%3.13%4.13%
Year 1 PV (M)3,487.053,521.193,555.34
Year 2 PV (M)4,224.164,307.294,391.22
Year 3 PV (M)4,896.575,041.825,189.91
Year 4 PV (M)5,508.285,727.205,952.59
Year 5 PV (M)6,063.086,365.776,680.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)188,943.12198,376.02208,181.95
Equity Value (M)213,122.27223,339.29233,951.45
Shares Outstanding (M)62.3762.3762.37
Fair Value$3,417.00$3,580.81$3,750.96
Upside / Downside180.77%194.23%208.21%

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