Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Chifeng Gold (6693.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.91 - $37.45$27.03
Multi-Stage$15.26 - $16.66$15.95
Blended Fair Value$21.49
Current Price$24.90
Upside-13.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,160.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,730.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)432.15270.09162.06
Cash Retained (M)1,730.981,730.981,730.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-432.15-270.09-162.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,298.831,460.891,568.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,711.751,711.751,711.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate10.85%10.85%10.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.91$27.03$37.45
Upside / Downside-20.05%8.56%50.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,160.742,301.192,450.772,610.072,779.722,960.403,049.22
Payout Ratio19.89%33.91%47.93%61.96%75.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.76780.371,174.741,617.092,111.972,664.362,820.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.85%10.85%10.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)697.37703.98710.59
Year 2 PV (M)938.13956.00974.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,154.031,187.161,220.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,346.891,398.691,451.96
Year 5 PV (M)1,518.441,591.781,667.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,472.6821,461.5222,488.21
Equity Value (M)26,127.5427,299.1228,513.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,711.751,711.751,711.75
Fair Value$15.26$15.95$16.66
Upside / Downside-38.70%-35.95%-33.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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