DDM Analysis: 605188.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.09 - $0.13	$0.11
Multi-Stage	$0.16 - $0.18	$0.17
Blended Fair Value	$0.14
Current Price	$15.71
Upside	-99.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	6.12%	0.00%	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.17	0.07	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-24.43%	-55.89%	-60.70%	458.88%	83.83%	-58.84%	-90.23%	155.10%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.12%	0.14%	0.35%	0.95%	0.12%	0.10%	0.25%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.19	0.75	0.45
Cash Retained (M)	0.98	0.98	0.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.19	-0.75	-0.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.21	0.24	0.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	527.23	527.23	527.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.01	0.01	0.01
WACC / Discount Rate	8.29%	8.29%	8.29%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.09	$0.11	$0.13
Upside / Downside	-99.45%	-99.33%	-99.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5.97	5.91	5.85	5.80	5.74	5.68	5.85
Payout Ratio	83.54%	84.83%	86.12%	87.42%	88.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.99	5.02	5.04	5.07	5.09	5.11	5.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.29%	8.29%	8.29%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.59	4.63	4.68
Year 2 PV (M)	4.21	4.30	4.39
Year 3 PV (M)	3.87	3.99	4.11
Year 4 PV (M)	3.55	3.70	3.85
Year 5 PV (M)	3.26	3.43	3.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	65.30	68.70	72.24
Equity Value (M)	84.79	88.76	92.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	527.23	527.23	527.23
Fair Value	$0.16	$0.17	$0.18
Upside / Downside	-98.98%	-98.93%	-98.88%

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Jiangxi Guoguang Commercial Chains Co., Ltd. (605188.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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