DDM Analysis: 605169.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.40 - $5.27	$4.26
Multi-Stage	$8.16 - $8.97	$8.56
Blended Fair Value	$6.41
Current Price	$14.05
Upside	-54.37%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-16.19%	0.00%	0.23	0.20	0.41	0.37	0.02	0.56	0.26	0.61	0.01	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	13.36%	-50.63%	11.51%	1,675.75%	-96.27%	111.95%	-56.72%	3,973.84%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.33%	2.25%	3.72%	3.11%	0.14%	3.26%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	100.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	91.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.12	12.58	7.55
Cash Retained (M)	9.00	9.00	9.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.12	-12.58	-7.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-11.13	-3.58	1.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	279.15	279.15	279.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	-0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	-0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.32	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.40	$4.26	$5.27
Upside / Downside	-75.83%	-69.65%	-62.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	100.62	99.61	98.62	97.63	96.66	95.69	98.56
Payout Ratio	91.06%	90.85%	90.64%	90.42%	90.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	91.62	90.50	89.38	88.28	87.19	86.12	91.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	84.26	85.12	85.98
Year 2 PV (M)	77.48	79.07	80.67
Year 3 PV (M)	71.25	73.45	75.70
Year 4 PV (M)	65.52	68.23	71.03
Year 5 PV (M)	60.25	63.38	66.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,919.76	2,019.72	2,123.81
Equity Value (M)	2,278.51	2,388.98	2,503.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	279.15	279.15	279.15
Fair Value	$8.16	$8.56	$8.97
Upside / Downside	-41.91%	-39.09%	-36.16%

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Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (605169.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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