DDM Analysis: 603949.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$58.00 - $68.38	$64.06
Multi-Stage	$43.78 - $48.20	$45.95
Blended Fair Value	$55.00
Current Price	$21.02
Upside	161.68%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	118.37%	32.18%	0.32	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.21	0.01	0.17	0.03	0.71	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	10.06%	0.58%	0.00%	40.00%	3,104.00%	-96.25%	522.92%	-96.11%	2,397.45%	44.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.12%	1.87%	1.66%	1.12%	1.32%	0.04%	1.33%	0.21%	5.49%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	76.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	21.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	55.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	15.37	9.61	5.77
Cash Retained (M)	55.76	55.76	55.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-15.37	-9.61	-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.39	46.15	50.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	216.09	216.09	216.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.28	0.31	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	-2.58%	-2.58%	-2.58%
Growth Rate	1.90%	2.90%	3.90%
Fair Value	$58.00	$64.06	$68.38
Upside / Downside	175.93%	204.76%	225.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	76.87	79.10	81.39	83.75	86.17	88.67	91.33
Payout Ratio	27.46%	39.97%	52.48%	64.99%	77.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	21.11	31.62	42.71	54.42	66.78	79.80	84.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-2.58%	-2.58%	-2.58%
Growth Rate	1.90%	2.90%	3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)	32.14	32.46	32.77
Year 2 PV (M)	44.13	45.01	45.88
Year 3 PV (M)	57.16	58.86	60.60
Year 4 PV (M)	71.30	74.14	77.06
Year 5 PV (M)	86.61	90.94	95.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,168.41	9,627.22	10,104.22
Equity Value (M)	9,459.76	9,928.63	10,415.98
Shares Outstanding (M)	216.09	216.09	216.09
Fair Value	$43.78	$45.95	$48.20
Upside / Downside	108.27%	118.59%	129.32%

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Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd (603949.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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