DDM Analysis: 603885.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.72 - $67.31	$51.50
Multi-Stage	$8.63 - $9.43	$9.02
Blended Fair Value	$30.26
Current Price	$13.60
Upside	122.51%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.10%	17.83%	0.48	0.29	0.25	0.29	0.40	0.23	0.36	0.31	0.28	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	66.40%	16.46%	-14.05%	-28.23%	76.46%	-36.68%	14.60%	11.52%	-0.04%	202.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.68%	2.26%	1.38%	2.11%	2.68%	2.28%	2.30%	2.12%	1.70%	1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	732.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	557.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	174.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	146.55	91.60	54.96
Cash Retained (M)	174.90	174.90	174.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-146.55	-91.60	-54.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	28.35	83.31	119.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,165.07	2,165.07	2,165.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.04	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.04	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$17.72	$51.50	$67.31
Upside / Downside	30.26%	278.67%	394.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	732.76	780.39	831.12	885.14	942.67	1,003.95	1,034.07
Payout Ratio	76.13%	78.90%	81.68%	84.45%	87.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	557.86	615.77	678.84	747.52	822.26	903.55	956.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	569.48	574.88	580.28
Year 2 PV (M)	580.63	591.69	602.85
Year 3 PV (M)	591.31	608.28	625.58
Year 4 PV (M)	601.53	624.67	648.46
Year 5 PV (M)	611.32	640.85	671.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,736.51	16,496.58	17,285.75
Equity Value (M)	18,690.77	19,536.94	20,414.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,165.07	2,165.07	2,165.07
Fair Value	$8.63	$9.02	$9.43
Upside / Downside	-36.52%	-33.65%	-30.67%

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Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd (603885.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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