DDM Analysis: 603219.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.25 - $11.65	$7.57
Multi-Stage	$3.70 - $4.04	$3.86
Blended Fair Value	$5.72
Current Price	$18.88
Upside	-69.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	45.14%	0.00%	0.30	0.28	0.29	0.02	0.10	0.05	0.31	0.15	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	5.14%	-2.68%	1,511.13%	-82.64%	125.07%	-84.82%	104.20%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.80%	1.99%	2.12%	0.14%	1.06%	0.47%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	153.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)	148.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.70	19.18	11.51
Cash Retained (M)	148.81	148.81	148.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.70	-19.18	-11.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	118.11	129.62	137.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	579.61	579.61	579.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.22	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.22	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5.25	$7.57	$11.65
Upside / Downside	-72.22%	-59.92%	-38.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	153.48	163.45	174.08	185.39	197.44	210.28	216.58
Payout Ratio	3.04%	20.43%	37.83%	55.22%	72.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.67	33.40	65.85	102.37	143.36	189.25	200.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	30.14	30.43	30.72
Year 2 PV (M)	53.63	54.66	55.69
Year 3 PV (M)	75.25	77.41	79.62
Year 4 PV (M)	95.12	98.77	102.54
Year 5 PV (M)	113.32	118.79	124.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,774.42	1,860.12	1,949.11
Equity Value (M)	2,141.89	2,240.19	2,342.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	579.61	579.61	579.61
Fair Value	$3.70	$3.86	$4.04
Upside / Downside	-80.43%	-79.53%	-78.60%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Ningbo Fujia Industrial Co., Ltd. (603219.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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