DDM Analysis: 603197.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$97.00 - $237.17	$222.26
Multi-Stage	$35.13 - $38.41	$36.74
Blended Fair Value	$129.50
Current Price	$44.66
Upside	189.97%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	46.88%	51.60%	1.33	0.31	0.20	0.45	0.24	0.19	0.28	0.28	0.23	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	334.60%	55.85%	-56.03%	84.74%	24.24%	-30.96%	1.88%	21.22%	450.00%	100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.03%	0.65%	0.49%	1.09%	1.04%	0.75%	1.05%	0.88%	0.97%	0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	251.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	154.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)	97.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	50.39	31.50	18.90
Cash Retained (M)	97.29	97.29	97.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-50.39	-31.50	-18.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	46.90	65.79	78.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	211.28	211.28	211.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.31	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.73	0.73	0.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.31	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.95	1.04	1.10
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$97.00	$222.26	$237.17
Upside / Downside	117.21%	397.68%	431.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	251.96	268.34	285.78	304.36	324.14	345.21	355.57
Payout Ratio	61.39%	67.11%	72.83%	78.56%	84.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	154.67	180.08	208.14	239.09	273.18	310.69	328.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	167.44	169.03	170.62
Year 2 PV (M)	179.95	183.38	186.84
Year 3 PV (M)	192.20	197.72	203.34
Year 4 PV (M)	204.19	212.05	220.12
Year 5 PV (M)	215.94	226.37	237.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,461.77	6,773.87	7,097.93
Equity Value (M)	7,421.50	7,762.42	8,116.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	211.28	211.28	211.28
Fair Value	$35.13	$36.74	$38.41
Upside / Downside	-21.35%	-17.73%	-13.99%

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Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation (603197.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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