DDM Analysis: 603136.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.33 - $9.71	$7.15
Multi-Stage	$9.59 - $10.52	$10.05
Blended Fair Value	$8.60
Current Price	$11.83
Upside	-27.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.79%	2.60%	0.38	0.01	0.01	0.16	0.31	0.24	0.14	0.07	0.20	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	4,652.74%	-28.01%	-92.99%	-49.49%	31.72%	68.34%	89.39%	-61.94%	-0.18%	-33.14%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.25%	0.06%	0.05%	1.12%	2.08%	2.30%	1.06%	0.59%	2.11%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	102.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	65.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	36.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.50	12.81	7.69
Cash Retained (M)	36.66	36.66	36.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.50	-12.81	-7.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	16.16	23.85	28.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	272.43	272.43	272.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.09	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.09	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%
Growth Rate	0.60%	1.60%	2.60%
Fair Value	$5.33	$7.15	$9.71
Upside / Downside	-54.92%	-39.56%	-17.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	102.49	104.13	105.79	107.48	109.20	110.94	114.27
Payout Ratio	64.23%	69.39%	74.54%	79.69%	84.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	65.83	72.25	78.86	85.65	92.65	99.85	105.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%
Growth Rate	0.60%	1.60%	2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	67.31	67.98	68.65
Year 2 PV (M)	68.45	69.82	71.20
Year 3 PV (M)	69.27	71.36	73.49
Year 4 PV (M)	69.81	72.63	75.53
Year 5 PV (M)	70.10	73.65	77.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,266.36	2,381.26	2,500.78
Equity Value (M)	2,611.31	2,736.71	2,867.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	272.43	272.43	272.43
Fair Value	$9.59	$10.05	$10.52
Upside / Downside	-18.97%	-15.08%	-11.04%

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Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd (603136.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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