DDM Analysis: 603029.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$112.29 - $132.30	$123.98
Multi-Stage	$79.17 - $86.89	$82.96
Blended Fair Value	$103.47
Current Price	$17.91
Upside	477.73%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.06%	13.08%	0.18	0.18	0.08	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.19%	108.88%	26.84%	-12.40%	-1.00%	41.19%	-22.17%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	0.98%	0.38%	0.47%	0.78%	0.69%	0.42%	0.42%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	81.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	58.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.24	10.15	6.09
Cash Retained (M)	58.44	58.44	58.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.24	-10.15	-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.20	48.29	52.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	122.06	122.06	122.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.62
WACC / Discount Rate	1.55%	1.55%	1.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$112.29	$123.98	$132.30
Upside / Downside	526.97%	592.25%	638.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	81.20	86.48	92.10	98.09	104.46	111.25	114.59
Payout Ratio	28.04%	40.43%	52.82%	65.21%	77.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.76	34.96	48.65	63.97	81.07	100.13	106.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	1.55%	1.55%	1.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.10	34.43	34.75
Year 2 PV (M)	46.29	47.17	48.06
Year 3 PV (M)	59.38	61.08	62.82
Year 4 PV (M)	73.41	76.23	79.14
Year 5 PV (M)	88.44	92.72	97.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,362.78	9,815.00	10,284.54
Equity Value (M)	9,664.41	10,126.64	10,606.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	122.06	122.06	122.06
Fair Value	$79.17	$82.96	$86.89
Upside / Downside	342.07%	363.21%	385.16%

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Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. (603029.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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