DDM Analysis: 603019.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.91 - $43.26	$31.15
Multi-Stage	$17.53 - $19.13	$18.32
Blended Fair Value	$24.73
Current Price	$119.25
Upside	-79.26%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.67%	22.58%	0.21	0.34	0.20	0.15	0.12	0.15	0.13	0.10	0.07	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-39.01%	74.38%	27.94%	25.13%	-15.01%	8.84%	34.55%	44.79%	56.40%	59.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.32%	0.70%	0.52%	0.52%	0.43%	0.47%	0.41%	0.35%	0.51%	0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,105.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	411.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,694.61

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	421.19	263.24	157.95
Cash Retained (M)	1,694.61	1,694.61	1,694.61
(-) Cash Required (M)	-421.19	-263.24	-157.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,273.42	1,431.37	1,536.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,458.81	1,458.81	1,458.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.87	0.98	1.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.87	0.98	1.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.26	1.34
WACC / Discount Rate	10.82%	10.82%	10.82%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$22.91	$31.15	$43.26
Upside / Downside	-80.79%	-73.88%	-63.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,105.95	2,242.83	2,388.62	2,543.88	2,709.23	2,885.33	2,971.89
Payout Ratio	19.53%	33.63%	47.72%	61.81%	75.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	411.33	754.17	1,139.83	1,572.44	2,056.48	2,596.80	2,749.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.82%	10.82%	10.82%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	674.15	680.54	686.93
Year 2 PV (M)	910.79	928.14	945.65
Year 3 PV (M)	1,123.17	1,155.41	1,188.26
Year 4 PV (M)	1,313.06	1,363.56	1,415.50
Year 5 PV (M)	1,482.14	1,553.72	1,628.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	20,067.50	21,036.77	22,043.13
Equity Value (M)	25,570.81	26,718.14	27,907.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,458.81	1,458.81	1,458.81
Fair Value	$17.53	$18.32	$19.13
Upside / Downside	-85.30%	-84.64%	-83.96%

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Dawning Information Industry Co., Ltd. (603019.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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