Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd. (601882.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.06 - $174.04$163.10
Multi-Stage$25.42 - $27.81$26.59
Blended Fair Value$94.85
Current Price$20.88
Upside354.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.10%12.78%0.270.540.360.240.050.060.070.060.070.09
YoY Growth---50.00%51.33%49.93%428.89%-25.00%-17.61%23.16%-12.09%-24.37%9.64%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.95%1.20%1.29%0.33%0.83%0.76%0.47%0.28%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)456.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)187.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.3657.1034.26
Cash Retained (M)268.90268.90268.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.36-57.10-34.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.53211.79234.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)521.99521.99521.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.06$163.10$174.04
Upside / Downside240.34%681.15%733.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)456.82486.51518.13551.81587.68625.88644.65
Payout Ratio41.14%50.91%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)187.92247.68314.41388.78471.48563.29596.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)230.29232.48234.66
Year 2 PV (M)271.82277.00282.23
Year 3 PV (M)312.52321.49330.63
Year 4 PV (M)352.40365.95379.89
Year 5 PV (M)391.47410.37430.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,708.6212,274.1612,861.33
Equity Value (M)13,267.1313,881.4514,518.75
Shares Outstanding (M)521.99521.99521.99
Fair Value$25.42$26.59$27.81
Upside / Downside21.73%27.36%33.21%

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