DDM Analysis: 601878.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$34.49 - $111.60	$104.58
Multi-Stage	$14.77 - $16.16	$15.45
Blended Fair Value	$60.02
Current Price	$11.53
Upside	420.53%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.97%	37.31%	0.29	0.26	0.31	0.31	0.24	0.24	0.21	0.12	0.18	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	13.01%	-16.08%	-2.18%	29.43%	1.18%	12.31%	80.15%	-32.51%	411.39%	180.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.56%	2.33%	3.05%	2.99%	1.89%	2.39%	1.82%	0.93%	1.44%	0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,558.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	900.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,658.75

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	511.79	319.87	191.92
Cash Retained (M)	1,658.75	1,658.75	1,658.75
(-) Cash Required (M)	-511.79	-319.87	-191.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,146.96	1,338.89	1,466.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,560.26	4,560.26	4,560.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.45	0.49	0.52
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$34.49	$104.58	$111.60
Upside / Downside	199.10%	807.05%	867.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,558.95	2,725.28	2,902.43	3,091.09	3,292.01	3,505.99	3,611.17
Payout Ratio	35.18%	46.14%	57.11%	68.07%	79.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	900.20	1,257.52	1,657.49	2,104.14	2,601.86	3,155.39	3,340.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,165.60	1,176.65	1,187.69
Year 2 PV (M)	1,424.03	1,451.15	1,478.53
Year 3 PV (M)	1,675.62	1,723.72	1,772.74
Year 4 PV (M)	1,920.52	1,994.38	2,070.34
Year 5 PV (M)	2,158.84	2,263.12	2,371.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)	59,003.27	61,853.15	64,812.10
Equity Value (M)	67,347.88	70,462.16	73,692.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,560.26	4,560.26	4,560.26
Fair Value	$14.77	$15.45	$16.16
Upside / Downside	28.09%	34.01%	40.15%

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Zheshang Securities Co., Ltd. (601878.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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