DDM Analysis: 601702.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$115.20 - $249.33	$233.66
Multi-Stage	$37.37 - $40.92	$39.11
Blended Fair Value	$136.38
Current Price	$16.98
Upside	703.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.43%	0.00%	0.24	0.15	0.13	0.11	0.08	0.10	0.47	0.04	0.03	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	59.50%	10.94%	22.57%	44.67%	-25.74%	-78.33%	1,193.88%	20.00%	-46.27%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.18%	0.80%	1.05%	1.18%	1.05%	1.93%	8.90%	0.69%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,246.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	317.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	928.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	249.21	155.75	93.45
Cash Retained (M)	928.56	928.56	928.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-249.21	-155.75	-93.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	679.36	772.81	835.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	993.88	993.88	993.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.68	0.78	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.68	0.78	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.00	1.10	1.16
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$115.20	$233.66	$249.33
Upside / Downside	578.44%	1,276.08%	1,368.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,246.03	1,327.02	1,413.28	1,505.14	1,602.97	1,707.17	1,758.38
Payout Ratio	25.48%	38.38%	51.29%	64.19%	77.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	317.47	509.34	724.83	966.17	1,235.82	1,536.45	1,626.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	474.13	478.62	483.12
Year 2 PV (M)	628.07	640.03	652.10
Year 3 PV (M)	779.31	801.68	824.48
Year 4 PV (M)	927.89	963.58	1,000.28
Year 5 PV (M)	1,073.86	1,125.73	1,179.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	33,254.05	34,860.23	36,527.89
Equity Value (M)	37,137.31	38,869.87	40,667.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	993.88	993.88	993.88
Fair Value	$37.37	$39.11	$40.92
Upside / Downside	120.06%	130.33%	140.98%

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Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation (601702.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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