DDM Analysis: 601601.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$67.36 - $114.12	$87.74
Multi-Stage	$83.04 - $91.13	$87.00
Blended Fair Value	$87.37
Current Price	$35.12
Upside	148.78%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.51%	7.83%	1.35	1.29	1.65	1.30	1.13	0.94	0.99	1.03	1.15	0.70
YoY Growth	-	-	4.58%	-21.41%	26.62%	15.01%	20.00%	-5.05%	-3.80%	-10.57%	64.89%	9.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.21%	5.45%	6.35%	5.67%	2.99%	3.34%	2.85%	3.04%	4.21%	2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	52,350.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,649.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	48,701.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10,470.00	6,543.75	3,926.25
Cash Retained (M)	48,701.00	48,701.00	48,701.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10,470.00	-6,543.75	-3,926.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	38,231.00	42,157.25	44,774.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,620.00	9,620.00	9,620.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.97	4.38	4.65
LTM Dividend per Share	0.38	0.38	0.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.97	4.38	4.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.35	4.76	5.03
WACC / Discount Rate	8.37%	8.37%	8.37%
Growth Rate	1.79%	2.79%	3.79%
Fair Value	$67.36	$87.74	$114.12
Upside / Downside	91.81%	149.84%	224.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	52,350.00	53,809.33	55,309.33	56,851.15	58,435.96	60,064.94	61,866.88
Payout Ratio	6.97%	23.58%	40.18%	56.79%	73.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,649.00	12,686.26	22,224.53	32,284.72	42,888.53	54,058.44	57,226.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.37%	8.37%	8.37%
Growth Rate	1.79%	2.79%	3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)	11,593.00	11,706.89	11,820.79
Year 2 PV (M)	18,559.12	18,925.57	19,295.61
Year 3 PV (M)	24,636.80	25,370.08	26,117.76
Year 4 PV (M)	29,908.23	31,100.98	32,329.06
Year 5 PV (M)	34,448.91	36,174.68	37,968.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	679,652.66	713,700.94	749,100.32
Equity Value (M)	798,798.71	836,979.15	876,632.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,620.00	9,620.00	9,620.00
Fair Value	$83.04	$87.00	$91.13
Upside / Downside	136.43%	147.73%	159.47%

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China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (601601.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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