DDM Analysis: 601600.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.83 - $70.15	$35.27
Multi-Stage	$22.30 - $24.47	$23.36
Blended Fair Value	$29.32
Current Price	$8.24
Upside	255.81%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	67.98%	-3.54%	0.28	0.20	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.35
YoY Growth	-	-	35.78%	3,084.85%	-68.80%	-17.04%	19.50%	-14.10%	-18.21%	15.45%	-92.82%	-10.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.70%	2.82%	0.12%	0.35%	0.65%	0.72%	0.54%	0.62%	0.55%	8.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,255.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,390.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11,864.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,851.09	1,781.93	1,069.16
Cash Retained (M)	11,864.54	11,864.54	11,864.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,851.09	-1,781.93	-1,069.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9,013.46	10,082.61	10,795.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17,081.14	17,081.14	17,081.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.59	0.63
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.59	0.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.67	0.73	0.77
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	3.26%	4.26%	5.26%
Fair Value	$21.83	$35.27	$70.15
Upside / Downside	164.91%	328.09%	751.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,255.44	14,862.53	15,495.49	16,155.40	16,843.41	17,560.72	18,087.54
Payout Ratio	16.77%	31.42%	46.06%	60.71%	75.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,390.89	4,669.43	7,137.70	9,807.73	12,692.24	15,804.65	16,730.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	3.26%	4.26%	5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,345.77	4,387.86	4,429.94
Year 2 PV (M)	6,182.50	6,302.83	6,424.32
Year 3 PV (M)	7,906.38	8,138.32	8,374.75
Year 4 PV (M)	9,522.49	9,896.76	10,281.96
Year 5 PV (M)	11,035.70	11,580.52	12,146.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	341,885.49	358,764.05	376,302.76
Equity Value (M)	380,878.32	399,070.34	417,960.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	17,081.14	17,081.14	17,081.14
Fair Value	$22.30	$23.36	$24.47
Upside / Downside	170.61%	183.53%	196.96%

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Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (601600.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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