Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Americana Restaurants International PLC (6015.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.22 - $0.34$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.30 - $0.33$0.32
Blended Fair Value$0.30
Current Price$0.54
Upside-44.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.11%0.00%0.020.010.010.020.010.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--73.67%24.34%-36.00%116.55%-43.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.73%1.39%0.92%2.12%0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.3522.1013.26
Cash Retained (M)49.7849.7849.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.35-22.10-13.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.4327.6936.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,407.848,407.848,407.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$0.22$0.28$0.34
Upside / Downside-59.56%-48.78%-35.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.77180.39184.09187.87191.73195.66201.53
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.74%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.99136.14145.62155.44165.59176.09186.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)123.83125.06126.28
Year 2 PV (M)120.47122.87125.29
Year 3 PV (M)116.96120.47124.04
Year 4 PV (M)113.33117.88122.57
Year 5 PV (M)109.62115.15120.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,978.102,077.932,181.75
Equity Value (M)2,562.312,679.362,800.85
Shares Outstanding (M)8,407.848,407.848,407.84
Fair Value$0.30$0.32$0.33
Upside / Downside-43.34%-40.75%-38.06%

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