Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangshen Railway Company Limited (601333.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.04 - $3.30$2.61
Multi-Stage$2.31 - $2.53$2.42
Blended Fair Value$2.51
Current Price$3.34
Upside-24.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.86%-4.73%0.050.010.000.000.060.060.080.080.080.05
YoY Growth--745.61%237.02%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-25.00%-0.47%0.47%60.00%-37.50%
Dividend Yield--1.69%0.20%0.07%0.00%2.65%2.53%2.21%1.74%1.54%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,307.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,295.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)261.44163.4098.04
Cash Retained (M)1,295.681,295.681,295.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-261.44-163.40-98.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,034.241,132.281,197.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,093.517,093.517,093.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate2.07%3.07%4.07%
Fair Value$2.04$2.61$3.30
Upside / Downside-38.95%-22.00%-1.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,307.211,347.311,388.641,431.241,475.141,520.391,566.00
Payout Ratio0.88%18.71%36.53%54.35%72.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.53252.02507.26777.921,064.701,368.351,448.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate2.07%3.07%4.07%
Year 1 PV (M)228.03230.27232.50
Year 2 PV (M)415.29423.47431.72
Year 3 PV (M)576.26593.36610.80
Year 4 PV (M)713.63742.01771.23
Year 5 PV (M)829.86871.31914.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,626.0014,306.7115,014.35
Equity Value (M)16,389.0617,167.1217,975.01
Shares Outstanding (M)7,093.517,093.517,093.51
Fair Value$2.31$2.42$2.53
Upside / Downside-30.83%-27.54%-24.13%

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