DDM Analysis: 601188.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.70 - $0.98	$0.84
Multi-Stage	$1.08 - $1.19	$1.13
Blended Fair Value	$0.99
Current Price	$3.42
Upside	-71.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.39%	1.58%	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.05	0.16	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	13.76%	-25.97%	66.07%	-71.25%	131.88%	-15.25%	22.77%	-4.73%	-0.56%	27.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.97%	1.57%	2.41%	1.43%	5.83%	2.62%	2.27%	1.66%	1.21%	1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	159.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	158.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.94	19.97	11.98
Cash Retained (M)	158.91	158.91	158.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.94	-19.97	-11.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	126.97	138.95	146.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,308.70	1,308.70	1,308.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-3.39%	-2.39%	-1.39%
Fair Value	$0.70	$0.84	$0.98
Upside / Downside	-79.40%	-75.39%	-71.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	159.72	155.90	152.17	148.53	144.98	141.51	145.76
Payout Ratio	0.51%	18.40%	36.30%	54.20%	72.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.81	28.69	55.24	80.51	104.53	127.36	134.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	-3.39%	-2.39%	-1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	25.82	26.08	26.35
Year 2 PV (M)	44.73	45.66	46.60
Year 3 PV (M)	58.66	60.50	62.37
Year 4 PV (M)	68.53	71.41	74.38
Year 5 PV (M)	75.13	79.10	83.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,137.12	1,197.21	1,259.80
Equity Value (M)	1,409.99	1,479.96	1,552.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,308.70	1,308.70	1,308.70
Fair Value	$1.08	$1.13	$1.19
Upside / Downside	-68.50%	-66.93%	-65.31%

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Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. (601188.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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