DDM Analysis: 601028.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.06 - $6.13	$5.03
Multi-Stage	$8.09 - $8.91	$8.49
Blended Fair Value	$6.76
Current Price	$14.23
Upside	-52.46%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	0.00%	-0.70%	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.12	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	6.87%	824.54%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-97.94%	-42.19%	-20.61%	42.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.85%	0.73%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.68%	1.44%	1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	368.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	95.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)	273.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	73.74	46.09	27.65
Cash Retained (M)	273.42	273.42	273.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-73.74	-46.09	-27.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	199.68	227.33	245.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	778.53	778.53	778.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.29	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.26	0.29	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.38	0.41	0.44
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.06	$5.03	$6.13
Upside / Downside	-71.48%	-64.62%	-56.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	368.71	365.02	361.37	357.75	354.18	350.64	361.15
Payout Ratio	25.84%	38.68%	51.51%	64.34%	77.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	95.29	141.17	186.13	230.17	273.31	315.57	334.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	130.42	131.75	133.08
Year 2 PV (M)	158.86	162.12	165.41
Year 3 PV (M)	181.49	187.11	192.83
Year 4 PV (M)	199.10	207.35	215.86
Year 5 PV (M)	212.38	223.44	234.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,419.29	5,701.49	5,995.32
Equity Value (M)	6,301.55	6,613.26	6,937.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	778.53	778.53	778.53
Fair Value	$8.09	$8.49	$8.91
Upside / Downside	-43.12%	-40.31%	-37.38%

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Shandong Yulong Gold Co., Ltd. (601028.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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