DDM Analysis: 601006.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.20 - $9.84	$7.08
Multi-Stage	$8.43 - $9.25	$8.83
Blended Fair Value	$7.95
Current Price	$5.89
Upside	35.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.61%	3.10%	0.50	0.41	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.39	0.24	0.36	0.40
YoY Growth	-	-	23.51%	11.53%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-6.88%	62.30%	-33.70%	-8.19%	7.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.68%	5.52%	5.07%	5.31%	5.20%	5.36%	4.62%	2.93%	4.80%	5.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,660.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,858.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,801.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,332.01	832.51	499.50
Cash Retained (M)	3,801.76	3,801.76	3,801.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,332.01	-832.51	-499.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,469.75	2,969.25	3,302.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19,560.52	19,560.52	19,560.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	1.10%	2.10%	3.10%
Fair Value	$5.20	$7.08	$9.84
Upside / Downside	-11.76%	20.14%	67.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,660.06	6,799.83	6,942.53	7,088.22	7,236.97	7,388.84	7,610.51
Payout Ratio	42.92%	52.33%	61.75%	71.17%	80.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,858.30	3,558.60	4,287.03	5,044.46	5,831.80	6,649.96	7,039.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	1.10%	2.10%	3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,311.88	3,344.64	3,377.40
Year 2 PV (M)	3,713.20	3,787.02	3,861.57
Year 3 PV (M)	4,066.33	4,188.19	4,312.46
Year 4 PV (M)	4,375.08	4,550.77	4,731.69
Year 5 PV (M)	4,643.00	4,877.21	5,120.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	144,689.30	151,988.12	159,578.57
Equity Value (M)	164,798.79	172,735.96	180,982.48
Shares Outstanding (M)	19,560.52	19,560.52	19,560.52
Fair Value	$8.43	$8.83	$9.25
Upside / Downside	43.04%	49.93%	57.09%

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Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. (601006.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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