DDM Analysis: 601002.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.72 - $2.54	$2.11
Multi-Stage	$4.49 - $4.95	$4.72
Blended Fair Value	$3.41
Current Price	$5.22
Upside	-34.60%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	78.74%	-1.57%	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.01	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.89%	3,763.69%	-94.73%	0.00%	-100.00%	-93.48%	2,822.14%	26.64%	-97.73%	-14.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.13%	2.60%	0.06%	0.84%	0.00%	0.09%	1.11%	0.03%	0.02%	1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	211.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	132.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)	78.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	42.29	26.43	15.86
Cash Retained (M)	78.59	78.59	78.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-42.29	-26.43	-15.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	36.30	52.16	62.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	956.86	956.86	956.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.36%	6.36%	6.36%
Growth Rate	-3.57%	-2.57%	-1.57%
Fair Value	$1.72	$2.11	$2.54
Upside / Downside	-67.10%	-59.57%	-51.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	211.46	206.02	200.73	195.57	190.54	185.64	191.21
Payout Ratio	62.84%	68.27%	73.70%	79.13%	84.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	132.87	140.65	147.94	154.76	161.13	167.08	176.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.36%	6.36%	6.36%
Growth Rate	-3.57%	-2.57%	-1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)	130.88	132.24	133.60
Year 2 PV (M)	128.11	130.78	133.48
Year 3 PV (M)	124.72	128.64	132.64
Year 4 PV (M)	120.84	125.94	131.19
Year 5 PV (M)	116.61	122.78	129.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,678.55	3,873.28	4,076.18
Equity Value (M)	4,299.72	4,513.66	4,736.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	956.86	956.86	956.86
Fair Value	$4.49	$4.72	$4.95
Upside / Downside	-13.92%	-9.63%	-5.18%

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Gem-Year Industrial Co.,Ltd. (601002.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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